Autonomy in check

The world of the 21st century can no longer be explained by the old logic of the Cold War. The rise of China and the relative decline of the United States are reshaping the international chessboard, forcing peripheral countries such as Brazil and Argentina to move cautiously between the two giants.

The article by André Luiz Reis da Silva and Yuri Bravo Coutinho, published in Revista Espirales – Volume 9, investigates how this quadrilateral logic, involving Washington, Beijing, Brasília, and Buenos Aires, has been redefining margins of autonomy and strategies for international integration.

The 2008 crisis, the Sino-American trade war, the dispute over 5G, and the Covid-19 pandemic are milestones that expose both opportunities and limitations. Lula and Dilma strengthened the partnership with China without breaking with the US; Cristina Kirchner sought a pragmatic balance; Macri re-established closer ties with Washington; Bolsonaro attempted an ideological alignment with Trump, restrained by the strength of agribusiness and Chinese trade; Fernández deepened relations with Beijing, including joining the Belt and Road Initiative.

The study shows that, far from full autonomy, Brazil and Argentina played a game of relative gains, sometimes taking advantage of gaps between the powers, sometimes submitting to structural dependencies. The central question remains: to what extent can South American countries escape their peripheral status and turn the Sino-American dispute into an opportunity for greater protagonism?

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