Behind-the-Scenes of the Religious Vote

2025-10-27

There's a general consensus that the evangelical sphere forms Bolsonaro's most solid base. But does this narrative hold true? The article by Vinicius do Valle and Esther Solano, published in Espirales Magazine - Volume 9, reveals a more complex and intriguing reality.

Even though Bolsonaro was able to secure approximately 70% of the Protestant votes during the second round of the 2022 presidential elections, key groups developed significant fissures. Copious amounts of devout evangelical Christians criticized the arms build-up and, above all, the politicization of the churches. "Religion and politics do not mix," was a motto heard across the country.

Interviews also showcased that the economic crisis played a key factor in these choices. The community's sentiment regarding inflation, unemployment, and the difficulties in maintaining a livelihood influenced evangelicals and caused a fluctuation, resulting even in the emergence of a possibility to vote for Lula. In the end, the decision to vote for Bolsonaro, in numerous cases, was more pragmatic than ideological.

Moreover, the research revealed that, far from exhibiting blind faith, the devout expressed an autonomous critical thinking regarding themes like education and the environment, moving away from the idea of a cultural war against Bolsonarismo.

The paper ultimately breaks the myth of a monolithic base: Protestants emerge as a diversified, strategic, and constantly disputed electoral body. But a question lingers: how will this group behave in the next election?

The authors debate the matter. Link to access the complete article.